SPC has placed much of northern Alabama in a slight risk for severe storms for today, and northwest Alabama in a moderate risk for severe storms Saturday and Saturday night. To read the outlooks, go to www.spc.noaa.gov.
The forecast is very difficult. A weak front sits across central Alabama early this morning, and it is expected to lift northward during the day. Temperatures should warm into the 80s. There will be no upper-level disturbance providing lift for storms today like yesterday, but the front should help at least scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. A warm air layer aloft, a cap, will limit storm development, especially south of Cullman, at least for a while. Storms will likely develop first in extreme north Alabama, then a few may develop as far south as Birmingham late in the day. A few may be severe, with hail and straight-line winds the main threats. We can’t rule out an isolated tornado, but the wind shear doesn’t look very impressive.
Most storms should die off after dark, but isolated storms may continue overnight tonight. With no cap and an upper-level disturbance, thunderstorms, possibly severe, will occur Saturday. The main threat during the day Saturday will be straight-line wind and severe hail.
Things change again Saturday night and Sunday morning, as a strong upper-level disturbance moves the front on through and brings in cool air. Wind shear will increase, and another round of storms will occur sometime late Saturday night or Sunday morning, with a risk of tornadoes. If the models are right with the timing, at least the storms will be coming through Alabama at night, with the worst storms maybe to our northwest. But, timing is still difficult now, and a lot can change.
It’s no time to panic. Don’t let the moderate risk scare you. Just be prepared and keep an eye on the weather today and this weekend, especially Saturday and Sunday. At the same time, don’t let the fact that we’ve had a lot of severe weather outbreaks this year lull you into ignoring the weather. Now is a good time to go over your tornado plan. And, with all kinds of outdoor activities this time of year, lightning is a big hazard. Be smart, and when you hear thunder or see lightning, go indoors.
