Refer to James’ video and blog post below for a complete look at the forecast for the entire week.
It looks like severe storms are possible over Alabama tomorrow night. A surface low over the Plains states this afternoon will move northeastward tonight and tomorrow, as upper-level disturbances approach from the west. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will bring warmer, more humid air into the southeastern U. S. over the next 24 hours. Highs tomorrow will reach well into the 60s over central and south Alabama, especially if we get some sunshine.
As the low drags a cold front toward Alabama tomorrow, thunderstorms will develop to our southwest. The wind fields, especially if a secondary low pressure area develops along the front in Louisiana tomorrow afternoon (as suggested by the models), will be strong. Winds by tomorrow evening could reach 60 mph just 3000 feet off the ground, and showers/thunderstorms could transport some of this air to the surface, causing wind damage. Wind shear will also be significant, with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values above 200, which may cause a few storms to rotate. We can’t rule out an isolated tornado as the storms move into Alabama tomorrow night, but with the strongest shear moving north as the storms arrive, the main threat will be straight-line winds. Instability will also be marginal, depending on how high the dewpoint gets and sun tomorrow.
So, in central Alabama, this should not be a big event. We’ll probably see a line of showers and thunderstorms come through tomorrow night, with gusty winds, some over 50 mph. And, if things change a little, we may have to worry more about tornadoes, but that threat looks minimal at this time. There may be tornadoes over Mississippi and Louisiana tomorrow afternoon. This is an event where you will need to keep your NOAA Weather Radio on tomorrow night.
