The Saturday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Central Alabama is waking up to increasing clouds and cool temperatures as morning lows dipped back into the lower 40s for most locations. Even with the clouds and we should see some peeks of the sun today, we expect temperatures to climb well into the 60s with some locations at 70 degrees or slightly higher.
Overnight tonight we will see a significant severe weather threat. It’s interesting to note that the dewpoints across Central Alabama this morning were quite low – 14 at Birmingham at 6 am. But the dewpoint at Mobile was 52. The big question is whether or not the atmosphere can recover in terms of low level moisture. Some differences in the various model solutions there. If you look at the MOS output, you might not think there will be much chance for severe weather with the dewpoint at Birmingham only forecast to reach 50. But I think strong south-southeast flow will help to bring dewpoints higher. If dewpoints reach the upper 50s, our severe weather threat increases – and if they reach the lower 60s, it rises even more. NAM forecasts of CAPE show respectable values overnight and into early Sunday. Helicity values are very high – so high, in fact, you begin to question whether or not the shear might be too much. No doubt the greater instability is across South Alabama.
Greatest severe weather threat remains west of Alabama as outlined by a moderate risk across the northern half of Mississippi, a good deal of Arkansas, and northern Louisiana. As a very strong upper low rotates out of the southern Rockies, a surface low will move toward the Great Lakes. The surface low will drag a cold front through Alabama overnight. The greatest threat of thunderstorms and severe weather appears to be between midnight and 9 am Sunday. It remains to be seen as to whether this will be a supercell situation or a potent squall line. I think there are some arguments for each of those, but conditions may favor the squall line scenario. With 80 knot wind at 850 millibars, it won’t take much to get widespread damaging wind across Central Alabama.
Just a quick reminder, if you do not already own a NOAA weather radio, we have teamed up with Midland Radio and Publix and Handy TV for a great offer – a brand new weather radio at half the regular price with the digital technology of SAME, Specific Area Message Encoding. The weather radio allows you to choose which counties your radio will activate for. It’s a great deal and I encourage anyone who does not have one to make a trip out today in preparation for what could happen tonight.
The front blasts through here on Sunday and I think we might even see some sun by Sunday afternoon. The good news is that the air with the system is of Pacific origins so it will get a bit cooler but no extreme cold. Rainfall will be limited though most spots should see a half to one inch of rain.
After a couple of good days, another system which the GFS is painting as a kissing cousin to the one we are dealing with tonight affects Central Alabama late Thursday and early Friday. The timing might adjust a bit over the next couple of days, but it looks fairly strong with the potential for another round of severe weather. So one approaching and one in the pipeline to watch.
Gads, whatever happened to relaxing weekends? Don’t forget the last of the Storm Alert shows will be this coming Tuesday at the Bessemer Civic Center. Hope to see you there. Please be weather-wise tonight and stay with ABC 3340 for the latest weather information. God bless.
-Brian-
