We could be looking at widespread showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon and evening, and some of those may be severe, with the possibility of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and dangerous lightning.
A cold front will move towards Alabama tonight, and a fairly strong upper-level system for this time of year will give the storms a little support. With afternoon temperatures at least around 90 and dewpoints near 70, CAPE values will reach 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg, plenty for strong storms. Shear will be weak, but stronger than it typically is in the summer. So, we may see some organized severe storms producing high winds. Precipitable water in the atmosphere (total amount available for rain) will be very high, and some spots may see over an inch of rain.
Storms may develop over north Alabama by lunchtime, and then move into central Alabama during the afternoon. The main window for severe weather in BHM is 3 pm to 11 pm.
This is not some big tornado threat like April-May, but with so many outdoor activities going on with school starting (football and band practice, etc.), keep an eye on the weather. Lightning may be the most dangerous…so make sure and get the kids off the field if a thunderstorm approaches. Lightning can strike a long way ahead of the main rain/wind in a storm.
