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This morning a weak front is nearly stationary between Birmingham (dewpoint 52) and Montgomery (dewpoint 64). Sure looks like any scattered showers today will remain south of that boundary, over the southern half of the state. Most of North Alabama will be dry with comfortable temperatures. Most communities will warm into the low 70s.
TOMORROW: A complex setup with a wedge of colder air nosing in from the east, and warmer air pushing northward through West Alabama. Tuscaloosa will be close to 80, but places near the Georgia border might have a hard time reaching 60. Scattered showers and storms should form Thursday afternoon and evening in an increasingly unstable airmass (mainly west of I-65), and some of those storms could be rather strong with surface temperatures are near 80.
FRIDAY: A potent spring storm system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms across Alabama Friday afternoon and Friday night. Instability values over Alabama rise to over 1,000 j/kg (SBCAPE) Friday afternoon, with with decent 0 to 1 km helicity values, a few rotating storms sure can’t be ruled out ahead of the main squall line Friday afternoon. The squall line itself looks like it will move through sometime between 6:00 p.m. and 3:00 a.m. with potential for damaging straight line winds. Some beneficial rain seems likely; totals of 1 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to two inches with this event.
THE WEEKEND: The showers and storms should exit the state early Saturday morning, most likely before 6:00 a.m. The sky will clear on Saturday, with a high close to 70. Sunday looks like a beautiful spring day, with a high in the mid 70s with a good supply of sunshine.
NEXT WEEK: We will keep our forecast dry Monday through Wednesday, with waves passing north of the state. Then, a long wave trough approaching from the west will bring a good chance of showers and storms by Thursday. The 00Z run of the GFS now has a strong ridge over Florida, which shunts much of the main energy associated with the trough north of Alabama, which could reduce the severe weather threat to some degree, suggesting more of a heavy rain event. We will see lots of model changes in coming days on this one, we won’t be able to be really specific until the weekend.
VOODOO LAND: The idea of a late season frost/freeze threat is back on the table around April 15 on the 00Z GFS. Again, this is voodoo for now, but just keep in mind the idea is out there.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
PRIME TIME TV SPECIAL: Join ABC 33/40 on the occasional of the tenth anniversary of the April 8, 1998 F5 tornado for a prime time weather special. The show will air from 6:30 until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, April 8; for one hour we will look back at this historic storm, through the eyes of those that covered the storm for ABC 33/40, and those in the path of the storm who survived. We will also be going to a live memorial service at Open Door Church, one of the many churches who lost their building that horrible Wednesday night.
I am doing a weather program at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover this morning… I will be in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be loaded here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
