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What a whopper of an upper trough moving out into the Plains this morning. SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather today for all of Arkansas, and parts of the adjacent states. A slight risk surrounds that all the way from the western Gulf coast to Chicago and Milwaukee. If the storms out there can go cellular, there could be some long track tornadoes involved this afternoon or tonight.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Today will be warm and breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. A few isolated showers could pop up during the afternoon, but there simply isn’t much of a trigger for rain other than an unstable environment.
The big batch of storms to the west could ease into Northwest Alabama after midnight. They should slowly weaken by daybreak Friday, and that activity could very well lay down some kind of outflow boundary that might be the focus for new development Friday afternoon. If there is surface boundary around here, that would mean a chance of isolated tornadoes with the storms Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Otherwise, the shear numbers have come down a bit, suggesting the primary threat would be from damaging wind and hail. Bottom line is that we need to be ready for all modes of severe weather.
TIMING: With the initial activity, there is a chance of severe storms over Northwest Alabama during the pre-dawn hours Friday. But, the main threat will come from about 12:00 noon until 8:00 p.m. during the peak of the daytime heating process. The 00Z NAM is now printing only 0.65″ for Birmingham with this event; the GFS is wetter with 1.20″. For now will continue to forecast about one inch of rain with this event.
SATURDAY: We will maintain the chance of some lingering light rain Saturday morning. Temperatures will be cooler with a high in the mid 60s. A dry slot should mean some sunshine Saturday afternoon, but clouds will move right back in here Saturday night.
APRIL COLD SNAP: Much colder air arrives Sunday and Monday with a deep upper trough right overhead. Areas north of Birmingham will have a hard time getting out of the 40s, and some scattered light rain is possible. There is some risk of snow flakes over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama Sunday night. How about that for April.
FREEZE POTENTIAL: The 00Z GFS now has a low of 32 for Birmingham both Monday and Tuesday morning. Due to clouds and wind, frost is not especially likely Monday, but Tuesday widespread frost can be expected, with freezing temperatures in many areas. At this time it looks like we will see a range from 25 in the coldest valleys to 35 on the ridge tops. Again, growers will need to monitor this forecast in coming days. A warming trend begins Tuesday afternoon, and the next freeze won’t come until sometime this fall.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS shows the severe weather machine slowing down for the latter half of April with the storm track shifting to the north and west of Alabama. Just a few decaying cold fronts are showing up, but this is voodoo, you know.
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I am headed to Montgomery this morning for a station business trip…. but will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video will be up by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
