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STORMY FRIDAY: Clouds will thicken across Alabama tonight, and strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across our state tomorrow as yet another spring storm system rolls through here. To the west, a tornado watch is up for much of East Oklahoma and parts of adjacent states as the first action of the day gets underway.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics that go along with this discussion, but it looks like our system tomorrow, while not the most dynamic of the year, will have the most unstable air to work with so far in 2009 as surface based CAPE values rise into the 2,000 to 2,500 j/kg range. Some other severe weather parameters for tomorrow afternoon from the 12Z NAM:
0-1km EHI: 3.41
0-1km Shear (kt): 34
STP: 8.31
CravenSig: 61,675
BestLI (C): -7.01
Those numbers certainly get your attention; SPC is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk for North Alabama for the day (most all of Alabama is in a slight risk of severe weather for now). While storms could fire tomorrow morning, it looks like the core severe weather threat will come from 11:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m. No sign of a blocking MCS on the Gulf coast this time, and all modes of severe weather will be possible, including a few tornadoes.
So, yet another day to watch the weather closely, and be sure you are close to a good source of severe weather watches and warnings.
EASTER WEEKEND: Very nice weather is the story; while we could see some lingering clouds Saturday morning, the sky will become mostly sunny by afternoon with a high in the mid to upper 60s and a northerly breeze. Sunday will feature a good supply of sunshine with a high in the low 70s.
MORE STORMS MONDAY: Another dynamic weather system blows in here Monday. This one will have better upper support that our system tomorrow, so it will also bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Some hint on the 12Z GFS of a thunderstorm complex on the Gulf Coast that could interfere with the flow of unstable air into North Alabama, but we won’t be able to resolve this until we get tomorrow’s system out of here.
LONG RANGE: Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look dry and pleasant, but showers and storms should return by Thursday and Thursday night. Hard to get in five days in a row with no rain with this very active spring weather pattern across the Deep South.
We also note the GFS hints at a pretty good shot of cool air in here in the April 19-20 time frame; doesn’t look like a freeze, but could be a deal with some of the coldest valleys get some frost. Way too early to be specific, and that upper trough might vanish in coming days.
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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Elvin Hill Elementary School in Columbiana (1st grade)… be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…