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Concern is growing over the possibility of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Alabama tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow night. Sure looks like parameters are beginning to phase up nicely… watch the video for all of the graphics, but the jet structure, both at the surface and low level, instability, and timing sure look favorable for a squall line with potential for bowing segments and damaging wind, along with a few discreet cells in advance of the line with potential for isolated tornadoes.
Some late afternoon parameters from the NAM:
Surface based CAPE: 511 j/kg (the GFS shows this to be closer to 1000 j/kg)
2m dewpoint: 63
Lifted index: -2.4
0 to 3 km helicity: 386
850 mb wind speed: 52 knots
500 mb wind speed: 64 knots
The greatest chance of severe weather will come in the 2:00 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. time frame; we will fine tune that as the event gets closer. It would be a good idea for everyone to review their severe weather plan now just in case we do have some problems.
On the positive side, more beneficial rain is likely, with amounts averaging one to two inches statewide. Some spots might receive over two inches.
COOLER DAYS: The rain will end late tomorrow night, and seasonal temperatures return to our state Friday and Saturday with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Both of these days should be dry, but clouds should increase Saturday night in advance of a strong upper air impulse, which will help to spin up a wave of low pressure on the old front south of here near the Gulf coast.
I really get the idea the GFS is not correct in the way it handles the system; the JMA and the GEM global models are farther to the north, with a surface low near Tallahassee early Sunday morning. While moisture will be limited, this feature could bring some light rain to the state Sunday, and maybe even a few snow flakes to Northeast Alabama Sunday night as the system rolls northeast up the Atlantic coast. We will be able to focus on this system Friday, after the big storm system tomorrow gets out of here.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: I don’t see any more record warmth showing up for the rest of January; in fact, we might be due to an Arctic blast in the January 18-21 time frame. The 12Z GFS shows a really nice rain event here January 18 followed by much colder air. Then, it develops a split flow in the January 20-24 time frame, which would be a can of worms due to very cold but shallow cold air, and a southwest flow aloft on top of that. But, we all know that is voodoo for now.
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