Latest model runs indicate that upper-level disturbances now in Washington State and in southern California will head towards Alabama Tuesday night, bringing a strong cold front through here and the possibility for severe weather. The wind shear, right now, looks favorable for strong storms. The question will likely be instability.
The models indicate dewpoints in the lower 60s reaching BHM Tuesday evening, which would be enough for a threat for severe storms. However, the models may have a little bit of a warm bias, not sure yet. Buoys indicate dewpoints in the 50s way out in the Gulf. However, water temps offshore are in the lower 70s, so once northerly flow shuts off dewpoints may rise. The best chance for severe weather will likely be in southern Mississippi and Alabama, where warm, moist air will be more plentiful.
We’ll keep an eye on this storm system, and I’ll have a more detailed analysis of the severe weather threat tomorrow. James will have the complete forecast tomorrow morning.
