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A fairly sharp cold front will pass through Alabama tomorrow, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler and cleaner air from the north.
Not much change in our thinking on tomorrow’s rain; amounts of one quarter to one half inch seem likely. The 12Z run of the NAM shows 0.40″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is printing 0.35″. Organized severe weather is unlikely due to the marginal instability and lack of strong winds aloft. But, one or two strong storms is not out of the question. Still looks like the primary window for showers and storms is tomorrow afternoon, but a morning shower in spots cannot be ruled out.
Air quality will improve greatly tomorrow and through the rest of the week as winds shift around to the northwest. As you probably know by now, the smoke over Alabama today is coming as result of southeast winds near the surface, helping to push the smoke from wildfires in South Georgia our way.
COOLER DAYS: Much cooler air invades Alabama on Thursday. The NAM is advertising 73, while the GFS shows 76 for Birmingham on Thursday afternoon. Both models have us in the upper 40s at daybreak Friday… not many more cool mornings left before we get into the long, hot summer. Saturday morning should be just as cool with upper 40s for most locations across North Alabama.
The weather will stay rain-free over the weekend as very dry, continental air covers the Deep South. Temperatures will warm slowly; we expect a high in the low 80s on Saturday, with mid 80s on Sunday.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS continues to show a decent rain event around May 25 with a nice cold front supported by an upper air trough. And, the model also continues to hint at some kind of tropical system close to the southern tip of Florida on May 30. The best possible case for Alabama is a weak tropical storm, or a tropical depression moving up this way bringing beneficial rain.
WEATHER BRAINS: An all new episode of WeatherBrains is available on the web, and on iTunes. Scroll down for the show notes from Kevin Selle.
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I had a great time today speaking to the first graders at Crestline Elementary School in Mountain Brook; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! Hard to believe this is the last week of school programs for the 2006-2007 school year. For the rest of this week I will be at Oxford Elementary (tomorrow), Greystone Elementary in Hoover (Thursday), and Avondale Elementary in Birmingham (Friday).
The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
