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A quick check of radar this afternoon shows a narrow band of showers over the far northwest part of Alabama, but the main batch of organized showers and storms remains to the west over Mississippi and Louisiana. SPC has issued a tornado watch for much of Central Mississippi through 9:00 tonight, and a few severe thunderstorm warnings have been required from the Jackson NWS office. Those storms should enter West Alabama late tonight. Showers and storms will become widespread toward daybreak tomorrow, and will continue through the morning hours before tapering off by afternoon.
I am still not really impressed with the severe weather potential for Alabama… for the following reasons:
*The storms will be coming through during the morning hours, at a time when the air is most stable
*The upper air wind fields and dynamics will be slowly weakening with time
*Helicity values remain rather marginal for rotating updrafts
Still, SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for Alabama late tonight and tomorrow, and you know the old saying… “with thunderstorms expected the unexpected”. But for now I just don’t see a major outbreak.
HOW MUCH RAIN? Unfortunately the 12Z models continue the trend toward a drier scenario; the NAM prints only 0.39″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.57″. The HPC QPF map looks a little too aggressive; I think amount of around 1/2 inch will be the story. Lets hope a few isolated spots see up to one inch, but I think that will be the exception rather than the rule.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott has removed the slight risk of a shower for Saturday, and I totally agree. We are forecasting dry weather for race weekend activities at the Talladega Superspeedway, with partly to mostly sunny, mild days and fair pleasant nights. The high on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 70s, with upper 70s on Sunday.
LONG RANGE: The maps for the first 10 days of May almost look like June, with the main storm track well to the north of here, and a moist, maritime tropical airmass in place. We might be bringing out the phrase “scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” a little earlier than normal this year if this trend continues. Lots of moisture in the air, but the daytime heating process is the main lifting mechanism.
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We will keep you updated on weather developments here on the blog during the next 24 hours… and I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
