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The radar is pretty active this afternoon over the northern half of Alabama, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in progress with some spots getting heavy amounts of rain. We expect the trend of wetter weather to continue through tomorrow as a disturbance approaches Alabama from the west, along with plentiful low level moisture. On top of that, an old surface front is hanging around north of Alabama, near I-40.
Extraction from the GFS is showing 0.80″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, and the NAM is wetter with 1.14″, but as we all know that the rainfall distribution won’t be even due to the convective nature of the showers and storms. I fully expect most communities to have a good chance of receiving one to two inches of rain though Sunday evening. The best coverage of showers and storms will come tomorrow, but they should thin out just a bit by Sunday.
For next week, the weather looks very routine for July with the daily chance of afternoon showers and storms in scattered spots, and highs in the low to mid 90s. The GFS shows another approaching front toward the end of next week that might enhance the coverage of showers and storms in the July 14-15 time frame.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of the excessive heat over the Southwest U.S. moving in our direction anytime soon; in fact the GFS favors an upper ridge in the west, and an upper trough over the eastern U.S. through the rest of July, which will bring occasional fronts down our way. Those fronts will run out of gas just north of the state, and when they approach they will bring enhanced coverage of showers and storms.
TROPICS: The tropical wave in the Atlantic, east of the Windward Islands, is being choked by dry air surrounding the system, and storms east of the Florida peninsula remain disorganized, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the first part of next week.
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Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos here over the weekend; my next video will be posted by Monday morning at 7:00 a.m. J.B. and Bill Murray will be around to keep you updated on the thunderstorm situation around Alabama… have a great weekend!
