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Mild temperatures will headline our forecast today; highs today will be in the low to mid 70s, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid-November in Alabama. We will have a mix of sun and clouds, and most communities will remain dry…. just a few isolated showers this afternoon and tonight, mainly over the northern quarter of the state.
STRONG COLD FRONT COMING: The latest model runs are a little slower with the next cold front… now it looks like the boundary will move through during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Accordingly, the main round of showers and storms in advance of the front won’t get here until late tomorrow night… generally from 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Thursday. The NAM is drier on the 00Z run; it has backed down to 0.19″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is printing 0.26″. No drought buster for sure.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Much colder air rolls in here on Thursday… we might have a really hard time getting out of the 50s despite the return of sunshine. And, we go well down into the 30s by Friday morning; a freeze is likely for the colder valleys with frost elsewhere. Friday will remain dry and cool.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be pleasant fall day with dry weather continuing, but another short wave approaches on Sunday. The 00Z GFS is a little faster with that wave and brings in a round of showers and storms late Sunday and Sunday night. Our ongoing forecast has that rain on Monday; I won’t change anything until we see the 12Z run; the GFS tends to be a little fast with systems like this in the medium range.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: Looks like a challenging and interesting week here in the ole weather office. The GFS brings a very deep upper trough through here at mid-week with a nice round of showers and storms Tuesday night… then a big pop of cold air arrives on Wednesday with falling temperatures. And yes, astute readers will note in the video the GFS shows a brief window for rain changing to light snow before ending Wednesday. Of course, the best chance of any accumulating snow will be north of here, but we have seen snow flakes in November before. If the GFS is correct, we won’t get out of the 40s on Wednesday, followed by a hard freeze Thanksgiving morning. All of this is just beyond our seven day window, so this is no forecast, just model output, But, we will have a pretty decent grasp on the situation before the week is over.
For now Thanksgiving Day looks cold and dry, followed by another chance of rain on Friday.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We have an all new show posted that includes an interview with Dr. William Gray about the 2007 hurricane season. Listen when you get a chance…. I thought it was a pretty good show this week.
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I am on the road this morning to Attalla… I will be speaking to the kids at Stowers Hill School; I have been doing a weather program for them in November for many years now… I always enjoy the visit, and it is a pre-Thanksgiving tradition.
