**No Weather Xtreme video today due to travel.**
ON THE ROAD: I am on a one day expedition to the Alabama Gulf Coast… unfortunately no time for the roads less traveled. I honestly can’t remember the last time I drove straight down I-65/Alabama 59 to Gulf Shores. I hope to get back a little later in the summer with the time I need to explore some wonderful parts of Alabama most folks never see. You can see my latest version of “Spann’s Best Way To The Bama Beaches” here.
TODAY: A well defined upper low is over Louisiana this morning, and is drifting eastward. Rain is falling this morning over much of Central and Southwest Alabama ahead of the ULL, and with the daytime heating we expect an increase in the coverage of showers and storms. With very high PW values (precipitable water), expect some locally heavy amounts of rain with the heavier storms today as the move north on the east side of the upper low. The NAM is printing 0.83″ of rain for Birmingham during the next 84 hours; the GFS is much wetter with 1.42″. Bottom line is that you can expect occasional showers and storms today and early tonight.
THE WEEKEND: The upper low will weaken into an open wave and move northeast of Alabama, but a very moist airmass will stay in place. This means some risk of scattered showers and storms tomorrow and Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when the air is most unstable. Most global models hint that the showers and storms will thin out a bit by Sunday. Otherwise, the weekend will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the 87 to 90 degree range.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Early in the week a 5940 meter 500 mb upper high tries to nose into Alabama from the west, meaning Monday could be hot and relatively dry. Still, being on the periphery of the high no doubt we will have some risk of an afternoon storm. Pretty much the same deal for Tuesday and Wednesday; the strength of placement of the upper high will determine the heat levels and coverage of afternoon showers and storms. The 00Z GFS is a little stronger with the ridge, so the first half of the week could see highs in the low 90s with only widely scattered afternoon showers or storms. Moisture levels increase toward the end of the week as the ridge weakens, so showers and storms could become more numerous by late Thursday or Friday. Model inconsistency has been rather poor, so confidence in the forecast is rather low at this point.
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Passing through Montgomery as I write this… we should be in Gulf Shores by 9:00 or so. I will post pictures later, and have the next discussion by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
