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RIGHT NOW: Strong storms have formed in scattered pockets across North Alabama this afternoon, but so far they are widely spaced. The severe thunderstorm warning for Marion County has expired, but other strong storms are possible through the evening hours. Temperatures are generally in the low 90s; Birmingham is reporting 91 degrees at 3:00, which is about what you expect in late June in Alabama.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: Expect a much better chance of showers and storms tomorrow and Wednesday as a surface front drifts down through Tennessee, and the upper ridge weakens. The GFS is printing 1.17″ of rain for Birmingham through 60 hours, but we all know how uneven rain distribution in summer can be. Still, most communities have a decent chance at getting some good rain through Wednesday.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: We are still going to forecast dry and less humid weather on these two days, although the 12Z GFS stalls the surface front out around I-20, instead of being deep into South Alabama like previous runs. We do note the 12Z run of the GFS shows a high of only 84 in Birmingham Friday with low humidity. Probably a little too cool, but it certainly looks like we have at least a shot of drier air here with cooler nights at the end of the week. Moist air will linger over South Alabama, where a few showers and storms will remain possible.
THE WEEKEND: I think it will be wide to at least mention some risk of a few showers and storms over the weekend over North Alabama, but the deeper moisture should stay down south, and the activity will be scattered. Highs over the weekend should be in the upper 80s to near 90.
ALEX: Here is the latest just in from NHC:
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI…835 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES
The 18Z model runs have adjusted to the left a bit, bringing in the system south of Brownsville Texas early Thursday morning, and NHC has adjusted a bit in that direction as well. The heaviest rain should be along and north of the landfall center, and there remains some risk of flooding over South Texas; watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that HPC has a 15 inch rain bullseye just below Brownsville.
Alex will pass well to the south of the oil slick in the Gulf, and should not impact it in a really significant way. Having said that, there will certainly be increased wave heights over the open Gulf, but nothing too serious. The increase in showers and storms expected along the Central Gulf Coast later this week is more the result of the surface boundary that should stall out just to the north as opposed to any direct impact from Alex.
Most models now show Alex dissipating over northern Mexico.
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