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After a one day break from the rain, we expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to return to Alabama today as some wave energy to the west helps the upward motion of the atmosphere. As usual, most of the showers and storms will come this afternoon and this evening, in the general time frame between 1:00 and 9:00 p.m.
THE WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS is trying to bring some drier air down into Northeast Alabama tomorrow, which would suggest no rain for places like Fort Payne and Gadsden, but I am not convinced that is totally correct at this point. We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms both tomorrow and Sunday statewide. The sky will be cloudy at times, and afternoon highs should be in the 87 to 91 degree range. Rainfall distribution will be uneven, but average amounts from 1 to 2 inches are likely between now and Sunday night. Some spots will get less, some perhaps a little more.
NEXT WEEK: We settle into a routine mid-summer pattern next week, with hot humid days and the risk of a passing storm each afternoon in a few spots. There isn’t much skill in trying to identify changes in the coverage of the storms on a daily basis this far in advance; that is often driven by mesoscale features, and not the synoptic scale ones we show on weather maps. Highs will be in the 90 to 95 degree range for much of next week.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is all over the road in its placement of the highest heights (and the associated heat bubble) on the upper charts later in the month; about the best we can do for now is roll with the persistence forecast for the rest of the month. Lets just hope that a nasty upper air high doesn’t set up shop across the Southeast U.S.
TROPICS: See the latest news on how Tyhpoon Man-Yi impacted Okinawa over on WeatherParty.com. That thing is a whopper. And, the Atlantic basin remains quiet for now.
CLIMATE BRAINS: See the latest news on climate change (BOTH sides of the story) on our sister site, ClimateBrains.com. There is also a forum there so you can voice your opinion. I will be speaking on the topic of “global warming” later this morning at a conference at the Marriott on U.S. 280.
I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon… J.B. will be on radar patrol today as storms develop….
