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SPRING STORM SYSTEM ON THE WAY: Mild weather continues across Alabama, with highs in the mid 70s this afternoon. But, the sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few scattered showers could develop this afternoon as moisture returns. A fairly strong short wave will bring a decent round of showers and thunderstorms tonight, and we will have the potential for a strong, maybe severe storms along the way.
The main negatives for severe weather are the lack of a deep surface low and weak helicity values. The RPM shows instability values over 500 j/kg, however, and with pretty good ascent we will have to watch the radars pretty closely this evening (this is mid-March, after all). The main window for strong storms will come from around 6:00 p.m. to 12:00 midnight, especially wests of I-65, and the main threat will come from hail and straight line winds. The storms should weaken late tonight as they move into more stable air over East Alabama.
The NAM is pretty aggressive with rain; it is printing 1.46″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is slightly drier with 1.22″. So, looks like a good one inch of rain for North/Central Alabama during the next 24 hours.
TOMORROW: Showers will end very early in the day, and the sky should become partly sunny. The coldest air aloft will be over Tennessee and Kentucky, and under that cold pool a few scattered afternoon showers will be possible, maybe even with some small hail. But, around here, we won’t mention any chance of afternoon showers for now. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler; the models continue to trend colder and we will forecast a high around 60 degrees… about 15 degrees cooler than today. Looks like we will visit the upper 30s early Wednesday with some potential for scattered frost across the colder valleys.
REST OF THE WEEK: We warm into the upper 60s Wednesday, and then we head for the upper 70s Thursday and Friday, perhaps some places reaching the 80 degree mark. Each day should feature a good supply of sunshine over the latter half of the week.
WEEKEND PEEK: A warm ridge aloft will be over Alabama, so the weather most likely will stay warm and dry Saturday and Sunday with highs around the 80 degree mark. The storm track will be displaced to the north thanks to the ridge.
BEACH WEATHER: This is spring break for some… if you are headed for the Gulf Coast you can expect a few showers or storms tonight, but the rest of the week looks very nice with ample sunshine. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the mid 60s, with highs well into the 70s a few miles inland, perhaps touching 80 degrees. The water remains pretty cool, however… the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was only 62 degrees.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any seriously cold air for Alabama for the rest of March, but we do note the North Atlantic Oscillation tries to go negative around the first of April, so we are not out of the woods yet when it comes to a late season freeze. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details on long range ideas.
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I have a weather program this morning at Oxford Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
