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Drier air continues to filter into North Alabama this morning… the dewpoint at Muscle Shoals is only 62 at 5:00. Birmingham’s dewpoint at the same time is 69, while it is 71 at Montgomery. No doubt the most numerous showers and storms should be over South Alabama today in the deeper moisture. The ones that form around here later today should be widely spaced, and many neighborhoods will be dry. The high should be in the low 90s.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The surface front will fizzle out tonight, and the moist air will drift northward in coming days, leaving Alabama in a relatively standard summer pattern for the weekend. You know the routine; partly sunny with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 90 to 95 degree range, with the hotter readings over West Alabama, closer to an upper ridge that is centered west of Alabama.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We will be in a northwest flow aloft for much of next week, which can always bring a surprise or two this time of the year, but we will maintain the standard summer forecast through much of next week. There simply isn’t much skill in trying to identify small scale features that can impact thunderstorm coverage days in advance. We note the GFS shows a relatively strong front for summer approaching in 7 days that could bring a marked increase in the number of showers and storms, if the model is correct.
And, looking into August, still no sign of any prolonged excessive heat wave. Now, don’t get me wrong, the weather is always hot here in July and August, but sure looks like the summer of 2008 will be cooler than the summer of 2007 for Alabama and much of the nation.
TROPICS: Dolly is inland and still producing heavy rain over South Texas; conditions will improved down there by tomorrow. And, the rest of the Atlantic basin is relatively quiet now; a tropical wave is several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands with no sign of development.
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