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We actually might see a few showers showing up on radar later today, but the best chance of them will be over Mississippi and far Northwest Alabama, closer to a weakening upper trough lifting out of Texas. SPC actually has a slight risk of severe weather today for a small region around Monroe, Louisiana and Vicksburg, Mississippi where instability values will be higher. But, generally speaking, most of Alabama will stay dry today with temperatures remaining well above normal. Tomorrow is pretty much the same story; any showers should be few and far between, and mainly over the northern third of the state.
Our Texas wave will fizzle out tomorrow as it passes north of the state, and a few, deep upper trough will dig over the western third of the nation. That one has great potential to squash the upper ridge that has been keeping us high and dry, and bring showers and storms back to Alabama in a few days. Before that happens, however, our weather should remain dry on Thursday and Friday. The GFS continues to show a shot of cooler air rolling in here from the east on Friday, which will drop daytime temperatures about 10 degrees.
THE WEEKEND: At the moment it looks like the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will come from about 2:00 p.m. Saturday through 4:00 a.m. Sunday. Rainfall of about 1/2 inch is likely; needless to say we will take whatever we can get. There is some chance a few spots might see up to one inch of rain, especially where stronger storms develop. At this point the chance of severe weather looks pretty minimal due to the cooler air expected at the surface and limited instability values. The sky will clear nicely on Sunday as drier air returns to the state.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to show fairly decent rain opportunities around April 4 and April 8 as a more active weather pattern develops across the Southeast U.S. as the upper ridge flattens.
WEATHER BRAINS: Be sure and scroll down and read about this week’s new WeatherBrains podcast, which is now available on the web and on iTunes.
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I will be speaking this morning to the kindergarten students at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon!
