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WARM SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON: As expected, temperatures are in the mid 80s across much of North Alabama this afternoon, a few degrees above the average high of 81. Birmingham is at 86 degrees at 2:00. The sky is partly sunny, and the radar is quiet. We did note a few isolated showers near the Tennessee border earlier this afternoon, but those have dissipated under the warm ridge.
TOMORROW: I think we will need to mention some risk of isolated, or widely scattered showers tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night as the ridge will be slightly weaker, and a surface front to the north gets a little closer. Still, nothing really widespread. We stay warm with a high back in the mid 80s.
THE WEEKEND: We will continue to mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday as moisture levels rise, the air aloft becomes colder, and the surface front creeps in our direction. The rain won’t be continuous or all that heavy, but plan on a few passing showers over the weekend. Sure can’t rule out a thunderstorm along the way. The high both days will be pretty close to 80 degrees, and the sky will be occasionally cloudy.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS and the ECMWF are now in good agreement about a surface low moving our way from the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, but they don’t agree on the position. The GFS is more to the south, and keeps the rain shield Monday over the southern half of Alabama. But, the Euro has the low closer to Dauphin Island with a good rain event for the entire state. I still say we need to lean in the direction of the ECMWF and forecast a good chance of rain Monday.
We will also need to keep an eye on that Gulf low for signs of tropical development… the water is still pretty warm there. One way or another it will be mainly a rainmaker.
The ECMWF moves the rain out of here Monday night, and shows dry weather for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with pleasant temperatures, and we will buy into that. But, we do note the GFS keeps us in moist air through mid-week with a chance of showers each day, so the forecast confidence is pretty low. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Nadine, the system that won’t go away, is still hanging around over the East Atlantic and is no threat to land. See the Weather Xtreme video for more tropical details, and a look at the impressive typhoon called Jelawat in the West Pacific.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: The sky should be mostly fair for the high school games tonight with temperatures slowly falling through the 70s. For the games tomorrow night, a shower is possible, but many stadiums will be dry. Temperatures will also be in the 70s.
Auburn takes the weekend off; Alabama will play a late game in Tuscaloosa Saturday night against Ole Miss (8:15 p.m. kickoff); the sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few showers are possible during the game. The rain shouldn’t be especially heavy, and the showers will be scattered. Temperatures will be generally in the 70s.
Saturday afternoon UAB hosts Tulsa at Legion Field (2:00 p.m. kickoff); the sky will be mostly cloudy and a shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The kickoff temperature will be near 80, falling into the 70s during the second half.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Expect a good supply of sunshine from Panama City to Gulf Shores today and tomorrow with only a slight risk of a shower. Then, over the weekend, scattered showers and storms are possible Saturday, followed by increasing clouds, wind, and rain Sunday and Monday thanks to a Gulf Coast low moving through the region. The rain could even be heavy at times on Monday. Highs will remain generally in the 80s. The rain could be heavy at times Monday.
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Thanks to everyone at Protective Life for their hospitality today… I presented a couple of tornado safety programs for them at midday. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
