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This will be another warm and hazy day for Alabama, with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 80s in most spots. I guess you can’t rule out a rogue shower somewhere during the heat of the day, but the deeper moisture will be to the west, where scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon over Mississippi and Louisiana. To the north, we will be watching a cold front that should light up the radar all the way from Little Rock to Boston.
SHOWERS RETURN TOMORROW: That front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to Alabama tomorrow. The latest model extraction indicates 0.40″ for Birmingham from the NAM, and and 0.23″ from the GFS. Sounds about right; we figure most locations will receive somewhere between a quarter and a half inch of rain tomorrow. Since convection is involved, some neighborhoods might receive more, but others will be drier. Widespread severe weather should not be a problem with rather limited instability values (surface based CAPE values remain well under 1000 j/kg) and relatively weak wind fields. While most of the showers and storms should come tomorrow afternoon, we can’t rule out the chance of a few morning showers.
A BREATH OF FRESH AIR: A fresh north breeze will bring in much cooler air on Thursday. The NAM is printing a high of only 72 for Birmingham, while the GFS shows a high of 75. We are using 76 in our forecast for now since the models have had a cool bias lately, but there is no doubt it will be a different kind of day. Clouds could move into the Tennessee Valley Thursday with a strong vort max rotating through the base of the upper trough; places like Huntsville might even hold in the 60s all day.
I will think we reach the upper 40s both Friday and Saturday morning as the continental Polar airmass covers Alabama. The weekend will be just about perfect for the Region’s Charity Golf Classic at the Ross Bridge Resort; sunny warm days, clear cool nights, and low humidity values.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS shows a nice cold front with good upper support moving through Alabama on May 25 with a round of showers and storms. And, it continues to hint at tropical storm formation in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf around May 30.
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I will be speaking to the kids at Crestline Elementary School in Mountain Brook this morning… then back into the office where I will have the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
