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A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER: This afternoon we have a classic case of scattered showers and storms on a summer afternoon in Alabama, and for those of you that miss the rain this afternoon, we expect coverage to increase through mid-week, with the highest probabilities of rain coming tomorrow night and Wednesday ahead of a surface front.
The 12Z NAM is printing 0.96″ of rain for Birmingham through Wednesday, while the GFS is very similar with 0.89″. The guys at NPC are suggesting rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches for much of Alabama for the next five days.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Dry air tries to enter extreme North Alabama late Wednesday, but the 12Z GFS is not as aggressive with the drying along the I-20 corridor. Looks like we will need to maintain at least a chance of showers for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden on Thursday and Friday, with a chance of dry weather over Northwest Alabama in the general area from Muscle Shoals to Fayette. The best rain on Thursday and Friday should be over the southern half of Alabama.
WEEKEND PEEK: The front falls apart, and moist air should cover Alabama over the weekend, so we will mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs this weekend will be in the 88 to 91 degree range.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any long lasting, serious heat wave around here through the rest of August, and since we will be clearly on the downhill side of summer late in the month, just maybe this will be a summer with below normal temperatures and above normal rain. That has certainly been the story so far with the mean ridge to the west and the trough over the eastern U.S.
TROPICS: The disturbance in the East Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands (99L) has not improved in organization during the day. It will continue to move to the west/northwest, and there is still some chance of development with warmer SSTs ahead of the system and a somewhat favorable upper air pattern. A new tropical low has formed in the region of the Windward Islands; that one will encounter pretty harsh upper air winds over the Central Caribbean in coming days; it might have a hard time surviving. And, Felicia continues to fall apart near Hawaii. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics on all of these systems.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Only about 3 to 5 hours of sunshine through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland.
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