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It appears the forecast is pretty much on track for Central Alabama with showers and thunderstorms likely this evening and into the early morning hours of Monday. Because the front and the overall system is moving quickly, the weather should not be lingering long with improving conditions across all of Central Alabama by Monday afternoon.
This morning, the cold front was just entering Northwest Arkansas while the line of showers and thunderstorms was located ahead of it. The leading edge of the line extended from extreme western Kentucky along the Mississippi River and into North Central Louisiana. While we are going to see clouds today, I think the best chance for rain begins in Northwest Alabama during the latter part of the afternoon and gradually shifts eastward. Much of the rain and storms should be clearing Central Alabama by mid to late morning Monday.
SPC has included the Tennessee River Valley and West Central Alabama in a slight risk area. See the video for details on CAPE and helicity, but suffice it to note that the primary threat is likely to come from a squall line with damaging wind the biggest threat. Large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. Fortunately, the frontal system timing precludes any help from daytime heating for us.
The whole system shifts east so that Tuesday and Wednesday look good. The maritime air means we see highs in the 70s but no extremes. Another closed low in the upper atmosphere along with another front will bring a chance for showers on Thursday. Moisture appears quite limited, so the showers will likely be scattered with some folks missing out on rain. We clear out again for Friday and the weekend with lows in the 40s and highs in the 70s.
Rainfall amounts with the first system are likely to be in the one half to one inch range. Due to the linear nature of the rain, nearly everyone will see some rain so the chances of getting wet stand around 100 percent.
Tropics are still a bit active with Rafael moving away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. All watches and warnings have been discontinued, but as Rafael moves northward, it is likely to affect Bermuda Tuesday.
Long range weather continues somewhat unsettled with another shot at a rain event around the 24th and 25th and a somewhat colder look to the pattern at the end of the month. Still nothing showing up that screams out an extreme.
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Another great storytelling festival in Selma. Carmen Deedy, Dolores Hydock, and the Dill Pickers put on a great performance last night at the Carneal Building on Church Street. If you like storytelling, mark your calendar for the second weekend of October, 2013, and make the trip to Selma for some wonderful entertainment at the Alabama Tale Tellin’ Festival. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday to update the progress of the rain headed our way. Be safe and Godspeed.
-Brian-
