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A small patch of rain was moving through Central Alabama this morning as widely scattered showers developed ahead of a cold front. The front was located in Arkansas stretching southwestward into Northeast Texas, and the temperature contrast across the front was substantial – on the order of about 20 degrees over a fairly short distance. The front will bring additional showers to Central Alabama today and this evening, but I think much of the rain will be ending by midnight.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the one quarter to one half inch range which will certainly aggravate the flooding situation already in progress. If you have concerns about flooding, be sure to check the latest river forecasts which will be adjusted with the additional rainfall. There is some risk of strong storms this afternoon, primarily in the early afternoon hours, in the pre-frontal zone. SPC does not have any specific area outlooked for a slight risk of severe weather. There is a relatively small window from about noon to 6 pm for high instability to occur.
Once this front passes, it gets colder, but the really bitter cold is not anticipated to drop in here until the middle of next week. The upper long wave trough will get itself established and that will be followed by a series of short waves rotating through the flow helping to amplify the trough while it maintains a position over the Eastern US. One of those short waves may bring clouds and perhaps snow flurries to North Alabama on Tuesday morning.
The real issue, and the picture is still not completely clear, comes on Thursday when the bitterly cold air arrives. Using the 540 thickness line as a guide, it plunges down into the Gulf south of New Orleans by Friday. I feel pretty confident that Friday will be dry but there could be some winter mischief on Thursday. As James and others have noted here, the computer models do not always handle shallow cold air well, so it will be prudent to maintain a close watch on these developments as the time frame gets closer.
In the longer range look, the GFS is showing a moderation of the pattern next week which should signal a warm up. But the pattern remains active with a steady stream of disturbances moving by keeping us in a variety of weather. Never a dull moment in the Southeast US and Central Alabama.
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Thanks for stay up with the Blog and our Weather Xtreme Videos. I expect to have the next one posted here tomorrow morning by 8 am or so. In the meantime, have a great Saturday. Godspeed.
-Brian-
