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TROPICAL SHOWERS: As expected, there have been very few problems in Alabama due to tropical depression Claudette so far; just a few flash flood warnings, mainly for the far eastern and southern part of the state. Rain amounts over North Alabama have been really been light so far, with most places seeing 1/4 inch or less. But, periods of rain will continue tonight as the remnant circulation moves up into East Mississippi. Sometimes warm core tropical systems can show a nocturnal rain maximum, so we will continue to watch the radar. Odds of small tornadoes will remain very small due to the weak wind field associated with Claudette.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: A very muggy airmass will hang over Alabama for the rest of the week, and we will have to dodge scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The showers will be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours, but in this kind of airmass you sure can’t rule out a late night or morning shower. Afternoon highs will generally be in the 87 to 90 degree range.
We do expect an increase in the coverage of showers and storms on Friday, as a deep upper trough forms over the eastern part of the U.S. This will drive a cold front down this way, and should move all the way down into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning.
DRY WEEKEND: Dry air settles into our state following that front, and the weekend looks excellent at this point with mostly sunny days, clear pleasant nights, and lower humidity levels. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the 60s. Would not be shocked to see a few upper 50s across the cooler valleys by daybreak Sunday. The dry weather should linger into early next week.
WHAT ABOUT ANA AND BILL? The strong upper trough over the eastern U.S. should keep these systems away from Alabama. Ana is an interesting story; the system is barely a tropical depression now, and will move right over Hispaniola during the next 36 hours, which will totally disrupt the circulation. So, there is a real chance it doesn’t survive. But, if it does, most models bring this into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico later in the week. That upper trough will turn Ana northward, and it looks like if anything is there, it will be a problem for places like Fort Myers or Tampa/St. Pete. This could be nothing more than a weak wave, or a significant hurricane. If it does develop, the odds are good it will be passing east of Alabama, keeping us on the dry side.
Hurricane Bill will move northward across the open Atlantic later this week, it will be close to the island of Bermuda Saturday morning, but the trough should keep it east of the U.S. mainland.
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