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No Dorothy, we are not in summer anymore… the maps are sure looking like autumn this afternoon. At 1:00 CDT, Flag Island, Minnesota is reporting 45 degrees with a chilly northwest wind averaging 25 mph. And, the second push of cold air coming in about 48 hours will bring the first freeze of the season to parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
WHAT ABOUT ALABAMA? Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase across the state this afternoon in advance of cold front number one. Rainfall distribution will be very uneven, but average amounts of one-half inch are likely tonight across the north-central part of Alabama. Some of the heaviest rain as I write this is falling up in Northwest Alabama between Sulligent and Addison.
TOMORROW: Where the front stalls will determine the chance of rain for your neighborhood tomorrow. The NAM suggests the front might make it all the way down to Clanton, meaning mostly dry weather tomorrow for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and points north. Humidity values will be lower as dewpoints drop into the low 60s.
THURSDAY: Both the GFS and the NAM move moist air northward, and it looks like there will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms statewide.
FRIDAY: Front number two should bring another healthy round of showers and thunderstorms to Alabama on Friday; once again rain totals of one-half inch can be expected, with locally heavier amounts with the stronger storms. I am afraid the rain could linger into Friday night, and might be an issue for high school football games around the state. I should also point out that if the tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico rolls up the front, rain could be pretty heavy, but beneficial. That remains to be seen…
A REFRESHING WEEKEND: Cooler and drier air rolls into Alabama over the weekend. Lots of sun, a fresh north breeze, low humidity, and cool nights will make for very comfortable weather. The 12Z GFS has come in a little warmer, with low 60s here early Sunday (62 for Birmingham), but based on the depth of the chilly air up north, I think 50s are likely for most communities. And, a fighting chance a few cold spots up in Notheast Alabama will reach the upper 40s (like Valley Head, at the foot of Lookout Mountain).
NEXT WEEK: At this time the weather looks dry and pleasant on Monday and Tuesday of next week with a gradual warming trend. But, eyes will be on the Atlantic for possible tropical action…
TROPICS: The disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized, but it still has some potential for development during the next day or so. For now it is drifting to the west, but we have to wonder if it will be pulled northeast, ahead of surface front number two and the push of cool air. That might make for a very wet day in Alabama on Friday if that happens.
And, in the Atlantic, the strong tropical wave about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to move to the west/northwest, and as this encounters warmer SSTs and gets out of the dry air surrounding it now, it sure seems like a tropical storm will form in the next day or two. The models are taking it to the northwest, north of the islands, by the weekend. Then, it has the option of recurving out into the open Atlantic, or being pushed back to the west, in the direction of the South Atlantic coast of the U.S., due to a very strong high north of the system early next week. This one will be interesting to watch.
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I sure enjoyed speaking to the senior adults out at Palmerdale Baptist Church this morning… a great crowd and a great lunch! Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
