The models, which had been out of agreement (with some predicting 5″ of snow), have come into agreement this afternoon (with the exception of the 18 UTC NAM, which is becoming more aggressive again with 5″ in BHM…maybe it sees the precip into southern Arkansas on radar).
Arctic air is slowly coming into the state from the north, while a low forms in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation is already showing up on radars from southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into Texas, moving our way. Surface analysis shows the low off Brownsville, with the front almost due east. The low will likely move the front northward some, so I think the GFS may be a tad south on its low position. Pressures are falling most rapidly in an area from Mobile and Pensacola toward buoy 42039, so this could be a positive sign for snow a little farther north.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php.
The precip, at first, will evaporate/sublimate (snow to vapor) on the way to the ground, cooling and moistening the
atmosphere. Precip should begin after midnight. However, the heaviest snow amounts will likely be south of BHM, near
Demopolis, Clanton, and Alexander City. Even MGM may get snow.
On snow amounts for BHM, here they are: 12 UTC NAM 1.8″, 18 UTC NAM 5″, GFS 1.8″, NGM 1.6″, Canadian 1.5″, UKMET 0.5″.
