Lack of weather this evening means that I have some extra time on my hands, so I thought I’d post an intermediate update on a couple of the weather systems we’re watching.
Tuesday’s Severe Weather Threat…
It’s still looking marginal for Central Alabama, but the threat still seems fairly high for South Alabama generally south of Clanton. Timing is looking more favorable for the hours from 9 am to 9 pm. NAM CAPE values go into the 1000-1500 range in the area from Montgomery to Mobile. Values in and around Birmingham come close to 1000 so we might see some thunderstorms. The surface low is projected to move from North Central Texas into North Central Alabama/Middle Tennessee by early evening on Tuesday. As it does, a new low center forms off the Carolinas and becomes a potent storm for the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. Dewpoints may reach well into the 50s across Central Alabama with 60-degree values to near Tuscaloosa.
Details will become clearer as the storm center develops and we see the changes as they are occurring. We’ll be watching to see how far northward the best instability can advance.
Next Weekend Winter Weather…
After we get by the first storm system, cold air will once again invade the Southeast. That brings an interesting scenario as the GFS has been depicting. The long wave trough over the eastern portion of the country sharpens significantly maintaining a strong, cold northwesterly flow for the Southeast. In that flow, moisture comes from the Plains states with reasonably strong disturbances that could mean cloudy, cold conditions or perhaps cloudy, cold conditions with light snow. The GFS has been somewhat consistent in this solutions, but that far out the solution could still change. I’m sure that all snow lovers will be watching the evolution of this pattern as we get closer to the event. I really wouldn’t expect to see a major snow event with this scenario, but measurable snow might not be out of the question. Life goes on, so stay tuned.
-Brian-
