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Ole Gustav is still impacting our weather here in Alabama. An upper trough is finally picking up Gus and moving him north; the trailing moisture axis will move into our state from the west, and we will mention a chance of showers today, with the best coverage west of I-65. A few periods of rain are likely statewide tomorrow; then the showers will thin out on Saturday as drier air begins to move in from the northwest. Sunday and Monday at this time look dry.
The NAM is printing 0.24″ for Birmingham through Saturday, while the GFS is a little wetter with 0.50″. We don’t expect any problems with heavy rain or severe weather…. just keep in mind a few raindrops will fall during the next three days.
Time to check in on our tropical trio….
HANNA: Not much change in the thinking; this tropical storm is expected to become a minimal hurricane, making landfall somewhere near Wilmington late tomorrow night or during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. The worst of the wind and rain from this will be from Wilmington north to Cape Cod; while there won’t be much structural damage, I do think there will be downed trees and power outages along the coast on that long run. The area from Charleston south to Savannah will remain on the dry side of the circulation, and major problems there are not likely (but it will be windy with some rain). Hanna will not impact our weather at all.
IKE: How about that growth spurt yesterday… this is a now a powerful, category four hurricane about 885 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 145 mph. An upper trough over the eastern U.S. should turn Ike northward before having a chance to enter the Gulf of Mexico; it remains to be seen if the big storm will threaten the East Coast, or recurve harmlessly out to sea. The GFS suggests no U.S. landfall; the ECMWF on the other hand shows a threat to the Florida East Coast and points north. Interests all the way from Key West to Cape Cod will need to monitor the progress of Ike very closely.
JOSEPHINE: This is the tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic; it is forecast to move west/northwest in coming days with little change in strength. A long way out there; and a fairly high latitude system which most likely won’t impact the Gulf of Mexico.
VOODOO LAND: We note the GFS show a nice short wave swinging through there toward the end of next week, which could bring some really nice rain amounts to Alabama if that verifies.
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