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ACTIVE DECEMBER WEATHER: Yeah, I know everybody wants to talk about next week, but let’s get through the weekend first.
ANOTHER GULF LOW: Rain will spread into Alabama tonight ahead of the next developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The rain will probably reach I-20 late tonight, and there is some outside risk a little sleet could be mixed in with the rain as it begins. A few periods of rain are likely, mainly in the 12 hour window from midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. Amounts up this way will be light; mostly in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch category. Once again the heaviest rain will over South Alabama, where flash flood watches have been issued this morning. Needless to say the ground is totally saturated down there with 5 to 10 inches of rain earlier this week.
Tomorrow will be a pretty raw day, with temperatures in the 40s, some light rain at times, and a chilly east wind.
BRING ON THE WEEKEND: The cold air stays in place over the weekend with highs only in the low to mid 40s (model guidance remains too warm). A strong vorticity maximum will rotate through the base of the trough Saturday, and could squeeze out a few snow flurries, especially north of Birmingham. The moisture will be very thin and we don’t expect anything significant for now. Sunday will be cold and dry with a partly sunny sky.
THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAR: In coming days our attention will be focused on a major pre-Christmas storm that promises to impact a big part of the southern U.S. Let me stress these points….
*I am not forecasting a White Christmas for Alabama right now; there is no skill in being specific with a winter storm 6 to 7 days in advance
*I am not really interested in individual model runs; focus on the ensembles
*Nobody knows at this time who gets rain and who gets snow. I mean nobody, even the trolls and know-it-alls.
*This storm does have the potential to disrupt travel where snow develops.
*This is the best setup for snow at Christmas I have seen in my 31 years of doing the weather on TV here, but everything has to phase up at the right place at the right time. The chance is there.
Having said all of that, watch the Weather Xtreme video and you can see how the 06Z GFS handles the situation; it paints the best chance of snow for North Alabama Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by a very cold Christmas Day, with sub-freezing temperatures pretty much all day long.
I encourage you not to sit on the edge of your chair waiting for every global model to complete; every run will look different. We will begin getting confident in a specific solution late in the weekend, and by the time we talk here Monday morning we can lay the whole thing out for you.
LONG RANGE: If we don’t get snow in the pre-Christmas storm, we will most likely have another chance before New Year’s Day, so we figure there will be no dull moments in the weather office anytime soon.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
