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MILD AND MUGGY: I am still not convinced it rains that much through tomorrow night. The 12Z NAM is showing .91″ for Birmingham, while the GFS prints 0.73″. I think it is safer to forecast one-half inch of rain for this part of the state, and hopefully the wetter models are correct. There is a real chance a convective mass along the Gulf coast will disrupt the inflow into this part of Alabama and reduce our rain totals.
We will forecast the chance of a few showers during the day tomorrow; stronger storms are possible over far Southeast Alabama where SPC has introduced a slight risk of severe weather around Dothan, Ozark, and Geneva. That risk extends across the Floridan panhandle and into South Georgia and the southern tip of South Carolina.
A cold front moves into North Alabama tomorrow night, and it should be accompanied by a band of showers, so take the rain gear if you are going to a high school football playoff game.
CHILLY SATURDAY: Saturday still looks cold and blustery. The big question is the southern extent of the wrap around clouds; I can see the clouds hanging tough all day north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. We will continue to forecast clearing along the I-20 corridor, but even with sunshine returning it will be tough reaching the low 50s with an icy north wind and steady cold air advection through the day. We will be very close to freezing at daybreak Sunday, and another freeze is likely Monday morning as well. We should see sunshine in full supply Sunday and Monday with very dry air in place.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For high school play off games Friday night, a good chance of a shower during the game at most stadiums. The temperature should fall into the 50s before the game is over. On Saturday, the University of Georgia will be at Auburn for an early kick off at 11:30 a.m. and televised by Raycon. It should be partly sunny with about 50 at kick off and peaking near 55 during the game. Brisk, NW winds. Over on the opposite side of the state, Mississippi State will be in Tuscaloosa to play Alabama Saturday night with a 6:45 p.m. kick off on ESPN. You will need extra warm clothing. Temperatures will be in the mid 40s at kick off lowering to near 40 by the end of the game.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Peeking into voodoo land; the 12Z GFS does not show a cold trough and snow flurries on Thursday of next week (November 20), but instead shows a similar feature three days later on November 23. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics; the model literally shows 10 inches of snow in Birmingham with that system. But, we all know that voodoo is just that, and it will probably disappear on the next run. At some point you have to figure we will have a nice shot of cold air before Thanksgiving. Just how it gets here and when remains very much in question with such model madness.
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STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up this Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
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I had a great time speaking at the volunteer appreciation lunch today at the Pickens Baptist Association in Carrollton… look for the next Weather Xtreme video tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m…..
