SUMMARY…A gradual increase in storms is expected through the afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION…16Z surface analysis shows much of northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama has warmed 4 to 5 F in the last hour despite some cloud cover across the area. This has led to an increase in low-level instability to around 750 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Warming is expected to continue with low-level moisture advection which will lead to moderate instability by mid-afternoon. The recent heating in this area has provided enough instability for a reinvigoration of lightning from some of the convection in northern Mississippi. Therefore, expect more widespread storm coverage within the next hour or two as surface destabilization continues to increase. Deep-layer shear in this area is very favorable for supercell and low-level mesocyclone development with deep layer effective shear around 55 to 60 knots and 0-1 SRH around 350 m2/s2 per GWX VWP. Therefore, these storms will pose a tornado threat with the potential for strong tornadoes, especially as supercells mature into northwest Alabama.
