SUMMARY…Wind damage and hail will be possible across parts of middle Tennessee, Alabama and western Georgia over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the south of the current watch later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in place across much of the Southeast with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. As a result, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP across much of southwestern Tennessee, Alabama and southwestern Georgia with MLCAPE values estimating in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates have increased markedly over the last few hours with the RAP showing the steepest lapse rates in central Alabama. This would be the most likely area for a continued severe threat later this afternoon. Wind damage will still be possible as the linear MCS moves southward across the southern and western part of WW 231. As the line approaches the area of maximized low-level lapse rates in Alabama, a new weather watch or watch extension will need to be considered.
