NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS…
MAJOR HURRICANE EARL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
MOVE JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY…THEN
ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
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AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY…NO SIGNIF CHANGES AT THIS POINT AS ANY MAJOR
CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON UPDATES FROM NHC. BASED ON QPF FROM HPC
INCREASED POPS A BIT TO LIKELY WHERE WE ARE SHOWING 1/4 INCH OR MORE
OF QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PREV DISC…PLEASE SEE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AND
NHC ADVISORY FOR LATEST EARL INFO. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO NEAR-TERM
FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF RAINFALL INTO THE AREA BY
ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRACK OF EARL AND LATEST
NAM12/GFS AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHIELD WILL THICKEN THRU
THE MORNING WITH RAIN ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING DURING THE MORNING TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S MOST AREAS.
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&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/…
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY…MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT ON
THE TRACK OF EARL JUST OFF THE ERN NC COAST BEFORE ACCELERATING
AWAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT TIME ON OUR CWA STILL LOOKS
TO BE ROUGHLY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THRU MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY.
LATEST PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM NHC PUTS HIGH PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE
COUNTIES…WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
CARTERET COUNTY…ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS INLAND FROM JONES COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM
WIND WARNING FOR COUNTIES FURTHER INLAND. WILL DECIDE FOLLOWING
THE NEXT ADVISORY. AS FOR RAINFALL…THERE WILL BE A SHARP
RAINFALL GRADIENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OVER OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY…ABOUT AN INCH TO
INCH AND A HALF OVER CARTERET COUNTY…RANGING TO LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD ON
ONCOMING COLD FRONT LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AFTERNOON…WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY…COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. OF NOTE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS INLAND DROPPING TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
THRU THE WEEK WITH MAXES BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDS AND THURS. RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
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AS OF 9 AM THU…LINGERING FOG SHLD LIFT SHORTLY WITH INCREASING AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF EARL. EXPECT VFR MOST OF
THE DAY WITH POSS SOME MVFR CIGS LATE NEAR CST. NE WINDS WILL BE
GRAD INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH EWN/OAJ HAVING GUSTS AOA 25 KTS
LATE. WINDS WILL BE BACKING TO THE NORTH AFTER 00Z AS EARL GETS
CLOSER TO COASTAL NC. HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE FELT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS EWN/OAJ WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
THOUGH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY FOR PGV/ISO AFTER 00Z.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HURRICANE
EARL MOVES NE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON W
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SAT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
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&&
.MARINE…
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AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY…ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WINDS LATE THIS MORN AND EARLY AFTN TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
PREV DISC…NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST AS ALL OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN AN EVENTUAL RE-CURVATURE
OF EARL OFF THE NC COAST (OUTER BANKS) TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DETERIORATING LATE TODAY AND PEAKING TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WAVE WATCH IS FORECASTING SEAS OF 30-35 FT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE STORM IS CURRENTLY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND
WILL PRODUCE CAPTURED FETCH UP UNTIL THE STORM RECURVES TONIGHT. THE
POWERFUL WAVES WITH PERIODS AROUND 15 SECONDS WILL PRODUCE OCEAN
OVERWASH AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM ACCELERATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET AND
WINDS COULD HOVER AROUND 25 KT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
AFTER ABOUT 6 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE GRADIENT
COLLAPSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6
FT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.
AT THIS TIME THE BIGGEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS…ESPECIALLY THE CORE AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE HIGH SURF IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IS EXPECTED AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND SIGNIFICANT OCEAN OVERWASH WILL BE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
MODERATE SOUND-SIDE FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE OUTER BANKS AND PORTIONS OF CARTERET AND CRAVEN COUNTIES.
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&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
NC…HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-090>092.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ098.
MARINE…HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
&&
