As JB noted below, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upped to Moderate the forecast for severe weather across much of the northern three-fourths of Arkansas and the northern third of Mississippi plus a small chunk of southern West Tennessee.
A quick look at the regional radar around noon showed a massive mesoscale convective complex – or MCC – moving out of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. A review of the motion of this storms suggests it will take a track that could impact places like Little Rock, Memphis, Tupelo, and Columbus. The SPC already has severe thunderstorm watch number 388 in place leading this storm complex.
Local storm reports out of Oklahoma already show possible wind gusts to 60 mph plus a number of counties in Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma were under severe thunderstorm warnings.
With the warm, moist atmosphere in place here, there is a strong possibility that this complex will reach Alabama late this afternoon or early tonight. Some severe weather parameters like CAPE (over 1800) and precipitable water (over 1.5 inches), and lifted index near -4 suggests that this monster complex will have a feeding frenzy if it does manage to make the trip across Arkansas and Mississippi. These MCCs can be quite destructive and dangerous, so I hope folks will take any weather warnings you might hear this afternoon or tonight seriously.
Keep up with the Blog today as I’m sure this is not the last we’ll hear of this situation.
-Brian-
