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We will continue to mention the risk of isolated showers or storms today, but don’t get your hopes up for beneficial rain. The upper trough is passing north of Alabama and weakening this morning, and most of the rain with the system will remain to the north of the state. The chance of any one spot getting wet around here today is only about one in eight, with the best chance along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The weather will stay warm, with a high in the low 80s.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Tomorrow will be dry and very warm (some communities might even reach the upper 80s), but we will watch for colder air moving southward from eastern Canada. That air will reach Alabama tomorrow night and Friday, and should drop temperatures a good ten degrees. In fact, the NAM is now printing a high of only 67 for Birmingham on Friday (the GFS is much warmer with 75). There will be some clouds around with the wedge of cooler air, but at this time we are not expecting any big chance of rain on Friday.
THE WEEKEND: The big upper trough now over the Rockies will finally bring a decent chance of showers and storms to Alabama over the weekend, but the GFS is now slower. The model is showing a good looking, negative tilt upper trough just northwest of here Saturday afternoon, but with the wedge of cooler air at the surface instability values look pretty marginal for a big problem with severe weather. If you believe the 00Z GFS, the best chance of showers and storms will now come after 6:00 p.m. Saturday. And, the model stalls the front over North-Central Alabama Sunday, meaning the showers could linger well into the day Sunday. If the 12Z run comes in like this, we will have to adjust our public forecast a good bit over on the seven day planner page.
In fact, the old boundary just hangs around, and we might have to mention a chance of showers on Monday of next week as well. Then, another front approaching from the north will bring more showers and possibly a thunderstorm Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
PEEKING INTO APRIL: Once again it sure looks like the warm upper ridge that has been keeping the rain producing systems away will be squashed over the next five days, and that should allow for more frequent rain producing systems during the month of April with occasional shots of much cooler air. The GFS is advertising a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S., which should bring below normal temperatures to much of the eastern half of the nation.
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I am off this morning to speak to the pre-school kids at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video ready by 3:30 this afternoon!
