Still Too Wet

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RIGHT NOW: A number of Alabama counties are under flash flood warnings… see all of them here. Needless to say, you might want to plan some extra time to get to work this morning, and if you drive through rural areas with creeks and streams in flood, don’t even think about driving across water running over the highway. It is very, very messy out there.

WHY? The extremely wet weather in recent days is the result of a tropical low that moved in from the Gulf of Mexico, followed by a nearly stationary position west of the state. It never had a name because it never was a tropical storm, but we will sure remember this one. The air over Alabama over the last seven days is very similar to the air you find over a tropical rain forest.

REST OF TODAY: We will maintain a good chance of showers and storms today as a long wave trough forms over the nation’s mid-section. The rain won’t last all day, and we might see some sunshine this afternoon. But again, when the showers come, they are tropical in nature and the rain could be heavy at times.

REST OF THE WEEK: We will maintain a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but the upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low, centered over the plains of Colorado. Ahead of that feature, an upper ridge will begin to build over Alabama and the Deep South, and this should mean that showers and storms will become fewer in number Wednesday through Friday. Understand showers and storms are still possible on these days, they will be just more widely separated. The weather will also be warmer with highs in the mid 80s, possibly reaching the upper 80s in spots. Sure won’t feel like fall, which by the way officially begins tomorrow at 4:18 p.m.

WEEKEND PEEK: Unfortunately it looks like the upper ridge will break down over the weekend as a strong short wave passes north of here, which will mean an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday. No, it won’t rain all weekend, but like recent days, it looks like the rain could come at any hour of the day or night, and locally heavy rain is certainly not out of the question. Another weekend for rain gear at football games around here.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic basin. This has been a very very quiet hurricane season.

INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: We are looking for the first good front of the fall season, and unfortunately not finding it in global model runs through the first week of October. Lots of very cool air out there, but it remains trapped over Canada and the northern U.S. The dam will break at some point, but this pattern doesn’t favor that happening within the next 15 days.

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