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Really hard to find the exact location of the surface low in the Gulf… but it looks like it is about 100 miles west of Key West. As you might expect, there is considerable model spread in the intensity and track forecast; the GFDL brings the system to the Texas coast, a little south of Galveston, as a tropical storm by Saturday. But, that is an outlier to the left. On the right side of the spaghetti plots, the BAM middle and deep runs want to bring it to the Pensacola/Gulf Shores area by Friday. Other models take the system to the Louisiana coast.
Seems like the logical choice is somewhere between Galveston and Morgan City, and we should know within 12 hours if this is going to become a formidable tropical system. Very few of the models are aggressive with rapid strengthening here.
Whatever happens to the south, it will mean increasing moisture levels for Alabama as early as tomorrow. For now, our forecast is for continued dry weather tomorrow, but I would not be surprised if a few rogue showers were to show up over the east or southeast part of the state.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Lots of model madness, but I still think persistence is the best forecast for this four day period. Warm and rather muggy days with a mix of sun and clouds, and the chance of isolated showers each afternoon. The prospect of a big rain event looks very small as the primary mid-latitude westerly jet will remain well to the north, and the tropical systems stay south. Highs will be mostly in the 84 to 88 degree range, with morning lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Humidity levels will be rather high, and the weather will look and feel more like summertime.
Rain should not be a big problem for college football on Saturday, and all of the events at the Talladega Superspeedway Friday through Sunday, but a few showers are not out of the question.
Of course, should our tropical system in the Gulf surprise us, we might have to change the forecast at some point down the line.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any major shot of cold air dropping into the Deep South, although the northern U.S. looks pretty chilly by mid-month, with a nice snow storm potentially for the Rockies early next week. Snow skiers will like to see that so early in the season. And, the GFS continues to hint at tropical trouble from time to time across the Gulf and the Caribbean, but there is no need to try and get specific since there is very little skill in that beyond seven days.
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I sure enjoyed seeing the kids this morning at South Shades Crest Elementary School in Hoover… be looking for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 and 6:00! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
