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Severe weather occurred to our west and northwest yesterday with little movement to the overall weather pattern as a deep trough over the Central Plains butted heads with a strong ridge over the East Coast of the US. Today, however, changes begin to occur that will allow the weather system to move eastward. The trough to our west will begin to weaken and eject northeastward while the ridge begins to break down. This means that the weather we saw to our west yesterday will come into our yard to play. I do not expect the weather to be quite as active as yesterday as evidenced by the slight risk outlook by SPC, however, all modes of severe weather including hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Also note that because of the slow movement of everything, a big chunk of the Southeast is under flash flood watches due to the potential for heavy rain with 3 to 6 inches possible. Slow movement plus the training of echoes will result in some serious flash flooding as we saw yesterday.
Deep moisture is in place and the cap we saw yesterday should break down today, allowing for storms to occur primarily across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee plus northeastward all the way to New York and Vermont. The dynamics are not as strong as what we saw yesterday, so while the threat is still substantial, we are likely to see more hail and damaging wind events then tornadoes. Forecast values for instability are not as high as yesterday but certainly significant. And I did note yesterday that forecast values were not as high as what actually was observed.
The whole weather system will take 24to 36 hours to move across Alabama with the weather improving by Monday afternoon. A fairly sharp short wave will move across the Southeast on Tuesday which may be enough to set off some isolated showers, but I think the rain chances are limited due to limited moisture.
Mid week looks great with highs staying in the lower 80s. The GFS has been suggesting for quite a while that the overall westerlies will pull northward with the main weather systems along the US-Canadian border. The GFS still wants to bring a front down to North Alabama on Friday, and I’m not sure I really buy that completely. I think the main rain chances will remain over the Ohio River Valley with only a small chance we’ll see an isolated shower or two. By the weekend, the GFS has latched onto that idea with the bulk of the weather action just north of Alabama.
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This will be another good day to stay up on the latest weather information. The Blog will be kept lively and current as this whole situation unfolds. James Spann will be back bright and early Monday morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you have a great day. Be weather safe and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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