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THIS AFTERNOON: Moist air has returned to Alabama. A band of showers and storms moved through some of the northern counties this morning, but as of 3:00 this afternoon the radar is relatively quiet. However, storms are increasing over Northeast Mississippi and Northeast Alabama, where the air is very unstable (surface based CAPE values around 4,000 j/kg between Muscle Shoals and Memphis). We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms for the rest of this afternoon and tonight; in fact SPC has pulled their slight risk area all the way down into Central Alabama due to the possibility of wet microbursts in some of the stronger storms this afternoon.
TOMORROW: A surface front will be nearly stationary over Tennessee, and we will stay in a moist and unstable environment. While it won’t rain everywhere, the day could very well offer the best coverage of showers and storms statewide.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: On these three days, heat levels will go up, and the number of showers will go down thanks to an upper high building across the Deep South. The GFS brings highs up into the 94-96 degree range, but the model has been a little too warm recently, and we figure most places will see a high between 92 and 95. One way or another, it should be the hottest weekend so far this year. While we can’t rule out an afternoon storm in a few spots, they should be widely spaced, and many communities will be dry over the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: The upper high breaks down a bit, with highs dropping back to around 90 degrees for the first half of the week. Scattered showers and storms should increase a bit Monday with a weak front approaching from the north. The GFS continues the idea of drier air pushing into North Alabama on Tuesday and Wednesday, but I will believe that when I see it. We will broad brush next week with your standard summer forecast… “partly sunny, hot, and humid with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs should be close to 90 degrees.
TROPICS: A disturbance is moving through the Windward Islands this afternoon into the eastern Caribbean, but upper air winds are not favorable for development, and tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
THE ALABAMA BEACH: It appears that Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and other beaches along the Alabama/NW Florida coast will have fairly good weather all the way through the weekend. There will be a small chance of an afternoon thunderstorm each day and high temperatures will be mostly in the upper 80s on the immediate coast.
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