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RIGHT NOW: Hard to find many clouds across Alabama this afternoon, and the heat is on. Most places are at or just over 90 degrees at 3:00. And, like recent days, while our weather is quiet, a dangerous severe weather situation is unfolding over parts of Arkansas and Missouri, where SPC maintains a high risk of severe weather through tonight. Many counties over the eastern half of Missouri are under tornado warnings at mid-afternoon.
STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT: The RPM is suggesting thunderstorms could reach Northwest Alabama in the 10:00 p.m. to 12:00 midnight time frame tonight, and those could be severe. In fact, the far northwest corner of Alabama is in a moderate risk of severe weather due to this possibility.
The initial severe weather threat will come from 10:00 p.m. through 6:00 a.m…. and while the primary risks will come from damaging wind and hail, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The greatest risk of severe weather late tonight and early tomorrow will be along and north of I-59, or north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden to Fort Payne.
WHAT TO DO: Don’t panic. We stress this event will be absolutely nothing like April 27. Just have your NOAA Weather Radio on, properly programmed, and with a battery backup. We will have the weather office staffed all night and will be on the air with frequent updates, or wall to wall coverage as needed. Never rely on a siren to let you know severe weather is coming.
REST OF THE DAY TOMORROW: The early morning storms will diminish after 6:00… but more storms should form later in the day. With the helicity values dropping off, the main risk of afternoon storms will be from hail and gusty winds; the tornado threat tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening looks very low.
The rain will end from west to east tomorrow night… many high schools are having outdoor graduations; you will most likely need to have those ceremonies indoors with rain and storms likely.
Rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, with some totals to one inch thanks to the stronger storms.
FRIDAY: I still think we don’t need to mention any risk of rain Friday; the storms should be out of Alabama during the pre-dawn hours. The day Friday will be partly sunny with a high in the mid 80s.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Sunny hot days, clear nights Saturday through Monday. Highs around 90 Saturday, with low 90s Sunday and Monday. The hot dry weather continues through Tuesday. We might consider a slight risk of a shower by Wednesday afternoon with a dying cold front approaching, but most places should stay dry.
LONG RANGE: The spring tornado season wraps up this weekend, and things look pretty quiet for the first two weeks of June… see the Weather Xtreme video for details on long range ideas.
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It was great to see many Alabama Power employees this morning at their downtown Birmingham HQ… you know they are all extremely interested in weather. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m.tomorrow…
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:
