Storms Return Late Tonight

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ONE MORE DRY DAY: Again today, active weather continues to the northwest, but around here we stay very warm and dry with a high in the 87-90 degree range this afternoon with a partly sunny sky.

SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather today from the Mississippi Delta to near Indianapolis, where once again we might see a few tornadoes this afternoon into tonight. We, of course, will be watching all of that with great interest. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather down into Northwest Alabama for the potential of storms moving into our state after midnight.

LATE NIGHT/PRE-DAWN STORMS: It looks like the activity northwest of Alabama will slowly evolve into a QLCS (quasi linear convective system, or squall line) late tonight, and enter our northwest counties soon after midnight. Most likely, by then, the primary risk will be from damaging straight line winds, but there is sufficient low level helicity for a tornado or two within the line. These storms should weaken as they move east, and by 6:00 a.m. they should be generally below severe limits. But, as we all know, these storms can pack a punch longer than you might expect.

Bottom line is that we might have some “middle of the night” severe thunderstorm warnings, and maybe even a tornado warning or two, so everybody needs to be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on tonight (programmed properly with battery backup) in the event those warnings are actually issued. The greatest window for severe weather will be from midnight to 6:00 a.m., mainly along and west of I-59.

TOMORROW: The big question involves the potential for the air to recover for more strong storms tomorrow afternoon. No doubt the helicity values drop greatly, so if we do have any additional severe storms during the afternoon, the main risk would be from hail and gusty winds. And, the better chance of them would be along and south of I-59. We would really need to see an hour or two of sun during the midday hours for this to happen, most likely. All of the stronger storms should be well into Georgia by 9:00 tomorrow night.

IMPORTANT: Our state is very much on edge after the generational April 27 tornado outbreak, and watching the severe weather over the Southern Plains in recent days. It is important to note that the event tomorrow is nowhere close to the setup we had April 27. SPC has the standard slight risk of severe weather in effect for Alabama, and strong/violent tornadoes are extremely unlikely. But again, a few warnings are likely, especially in that midnight to 6:00 a.m. time frame, so we will be watching and burning the midnight oil.

On the positive side, we expect one-half to one inch of rain… it is getting very dry around here and we need that since it looks like a long dry spell once we get past tomorrow.

FRIDAY: I honestly think we can take out that “chance of a stray shower” Friday morning since it looks like the rain will be long gone by then. Friday should be partly sunny with a high in the mid 80s.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: We kick off the summer season with a hot and dry weekend. Lots of sunshine; highs in the upper 80s Saturday, followed by low 90s Sunday and Monday. The hot, dry weather continues well into next week thanks to a 5880 meter 500 mb ridge across the eastern half of the nation.

BYE BYE TORNADO SEASON: I expect the event late tonight and tomorrow to be the last one of the historic 2011 spring tornado season. No sign of any severe weather issues beyond that, and we rarely have severe weather in the summer unless a tropical storm or hurricane is involved.

AT THE BEACH: Dry and warm today… then just the risk of a few widely scattered showers or storms tomorrow and Friday. The holiday weekend will be dry with sunny days and fair nights Saturday through Monday, with highs along the immediate coast in the low to mid 80s. The ocean water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 78 degrees (F).

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I will be speaking at Alabama Power’s HQ in downtown Birmingham this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video this afternoon by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!