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The warm-up continues today; we rise into the 80s with a gusty wind out of the south/southwest by afternoon along with a good supply of sunshine. To the west, we will watch a new system moving out of the Rockies, which could produce a band of strong to severe storms in the general area from eastern Oklahoma to Iowa.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The severe weather risk shifts to the east tomorrow, with the greatest chance of severe storms from roughly Monroe, Louisiana to Chicago. Here in Alabama, it looks like most of the day tomorrow will be dry, with just an outside risk of an afternoon shower. A few showers or storms are possible tomorrow night, but it looks more and more like the big rain day will be Saturday.
We will highlight a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, and SPC has now defined a slight risk of severe weather for most of Alabama. Surface based CAPE values rise to near 1,500 j/kg by afternoon, with 0 to 3 km helicity values over 200 m2/s2, along with decent lapse rates. So, no doubt there will certainly be a chance of strong to severe storms. If we have widespread rain through the morning hours, that will limit the degrees of instability and keep the chance of severe weather low. But, if the sun breaks out at times during the midday hours, it could be a rough afternoon.
Drier air returns Saturday night, and Sunday looks like a nice day with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks dry and mild with highs generally in the 70s; showers and storms will return at the end of the week Thursday and Friday.
VOODOO COUNTRY: Not much model consistency in the 7 to 15 day period, so little confidence in any solution. The latest GFS trends hint at cold fronts getting in here and stalling out from time to time, and some decent rain events show up. We will see.
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I am headed up to Cold Springs School in Cullman County today; I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
