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Drier air is moving into Northeast Alabama this morning. The dewpoint has dropped to a refreshing 63 at Fort Payne, and 65 at Gadsden. This drier should mean few, if any, showers over the northeast counties of Alabama today. And, for the rest of North Alabama, showers and storms should become fewer in number as the trend toward drier air continues. Sure, this is July in Alabama, so there will always be a few storm around during the afternoon, but you have to figure most of them will be along and west of I-65 today.
REST OF THE WEEK: Model guidance continues to be way too cool; yesterday the MOS products were showing a high in the mid to upper 80s for Birmingham; our observed high was 94 degrees. Maybe the models need to turn the calendar over to July or something. We will be well up in the 90s each afternoon this week, with only isolated afternoon showers and storms tomorrow and Thursday. Most backyard barbecues and community fireworks shows tomorrow evening won’t be bothered by thunder and lightning (MOST, not all!).
Looks like scattered afternoon showers and storms will be a little more active by Friday and the weekend as another surface front approaches from the north. I doubt if that front has enough southward push to move far into Alabama, so most neighborhoods stand a pretty good chance of getting wet a time or two this weekend.
LONG RANGE: No major change through mid-July, we have a sizzling heat bubble over the Southwest U.S., and a cool trough over the northeast part of the nation. We stay in a moist airmass, and scattered afternoon showers and storms will form on an almost daily basis. And, occasional fronts approaching from the north will enhance the coverage of showers and storms. No sign of the upper air high over the Southwest U.S. moving in this direction, thank goodness.
TROPICS: A compact little tropical wave is showing up about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The models move it in the general direction of the Leeward Islands for the rest of the week. It is a little early in the season for those kind of systems to really crank up, and it seems like there is a large amount of dry air ahead of the system, so I doubt if it turns into anything really troublesome. But, we will keep an eye on it.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Lots of interesting articles over there as always.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We recorded a new episode last night, and the show notes should be posted here on the blog shortly.
If you are headed out of town for the holiday, have a safe trip… I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon, and we will produce one tomorrow on Independence Day. Enjoy your Tuesday!
