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Check out all of the pre-dawn posts… you don’t find too many weather blogs in the nation with such activity between midnight and 5:00 a.m.! Thanks to J.B., Tim, and Jason for the sleepless night.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: You all know by now that SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of Central and South Alabama… watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics. The early morning convection, which was mostly elevated, is moving out of the state, and it seems more and more like we will have a window for some clearing, adding to the potential instability this afternoon.
The RPM model suggests surface based CAPE values could soar to over 1,500 j/kg this afternoon around here, and with dry air in the mid levels and a degree of helicity, we could indeed see a few isolated tornadoes. The main window for severe weather will come from 1:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m., and the highest tornado potential will be south of I-20. Jet stream structure looks impressive with divergence aloft. No distinct 500 mb short wave, and the surface low is well to the north, but we have had significant severe weather events under similar conditions (March 27, 1994 is a good example).
So, stick around here today for the latest updates. Ashley B will in the Storm Chaser; we will have her live stream available, along with other streams from ABC 33/40 photographers. And, of course, if tornado warnings are issued for our DMA will be live on the Internet and ABC 33/40 TV.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: These days will be cool and dry with a mostly sunny sky. The models continue to back off on the amount of cold air advection; looks like a high in the low 50s tomorrow, and mid 50s on Friday. We will be down in the 20s at daybreak Friday.
WHAT ABOUT SATURDAY: An interesting clipper will roll in here Saturday. The ECMWF continues to be rather aggressive with this feature, with hint of surface low spinning up in the northern Gulf and snow around here. But, the GFS and the NAM show just some light rain with potential for a few snow flakes mixed in. We will so with that solution for now, and take a more detailed look tomorrow after today’s storm event.
Sunday will be cool and dry with a sunny sky and a high in the mid 40s.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS hints the best chance of rain will come toward the end of next week, Thursday and Friday 2/26-27, but enough moisture could return for a few scattered showers as early as Tuesday and Wednesday. Next week will be relatively mild with a south low level flow.
STORM ALERT 2009: Don’t forget we will be in Oxford tomorrow night at 7:00 at the Oxford Civic Center… we hope to see you there for our annual severe weather awareness tour across the state.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
We will have frequent updates today so stay tuned… I am scheduled to speak this morning at Odenville Intermediate School at 10:00; I will most likely try to make it over there before the next round of storms fires up.
