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Warm frontal boundary across Central Alabama will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days. This morning there were a few isolated showers occurring across Northwest Alabama but I do expect the day to be mostly dry but warming up to highs in the upper 80s.
With northwesterly flow aloft, we will see a short wave move through the flow on Monday and Tuesday. The disturbance will help to kick off showers and thunderstorms especially Monday and early Tuesday. We will need to watch the northwesterly flow for large thunderstorm complexes that form to our northwest and propagate to the southeast. These could produce strong to severe storms for us. SPC has outlooked the northeastern third of Alabama for a slight risk of severe storms on Monday along the frontal boundary as the primary short wave travels down the flow. The main threat will be damaging wind and possibly large hail.
The trough over the eastern US sharpens a bit on Tuesday which should push the frontal boundary south and into the Gulf Coast region. This should dry us out somewhat and end our rain chances for the latter half of the week. But the northwesterly flow remains in place, so we will continue to need to be watchful for MCSs to form well to our northwest and move our way, but those will be tricky to forecast that far out.
Temperatures are expected to remain in the 80s for highs for the upcoming week. Rainfall could be around an inch for many locations in Central Alabama with the main threat of rain coming Monday and early Tuesday. Beach enthusiasts will find it a somewhat wet week ahead as the frontal boundary slides to the south along the Gulf Coast come Tuesday afternoon and into the rest of the week.
Voodoo country shows the upper ridge getting established once again which would mean a return to heat and daily shower chances. The ridge also pushes the westerlies further north away from us.
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-Brian-
