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All eyes continue to be on the severe convection that is ongoing over Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta region. The AP is now reporting seven deaths in Arkansas; see the latest over on the abc3340.com news site.
WHAT ABOUT ALABAMA? We believe the thunderstorms will enter the northwest corner of Alabama tonight, and those storms could be severe initially, and SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the northwest corner of our state for tonight.
The storms should slowly weaken late tonight and during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow as they move into a more stable airmass, but some very generous rain amounts are possible. The extent of the morning rain and cloud cover will determine the extent of the afternoon severe weather threat. The first batch of rain and storms should diminish by late morning, and a break in the rain is very possible for several hours. But, more storms should fire up tomorrow afternoon, especially over the eastern half of the state.
We need to say up front that the dynamics over Alabama tomorrow will not be nearly as potent as what we have now over Arkansas, and the severe weather threat is not nearly as great. Wind fields are expected to weaken through the day, but if the sun can break out for a while, there will be sufficient instability for a few strong to severe storms.
If could very well be that the greatest risk of severe storms will come tomorrow afternoon, generally from 12:00 until 6:00 p.m., and mainly east of I-65.
Rain totals from this system should average around one inch, with isolated spots getting up to two inches.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: The sky will clear tomorrow night, and beautiful weather is likely Sunday and Monday with sunny mild days and clear cool nights.
We could see showers returning as early as Wednesday afternoon, but they seem more likely on Thursday, and possibly into Friday.
VOODOO LAND: A nice upper trough shows up around May 12-13 with a chance of strong storms, but run to run consistency is very poor, and confidence in any solution beyond seven days is small at this point.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Thanks to all of the 2nd graders at Shades Cahaba Elementary School in Homewood for allowing me to come and visit them today… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates this weekend, and we will have running updates on the thunderstorm situation as this event unfolds. Stay tuned….
