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RIGHT NOW: Rain and strong thunderstorms continue over parts of West Alabama, in the general area from York, Eutaw, and Demopolis south to Mobile. The NWS in Jackson issued a few severe thunderstorm warnings earlier when this activity was over Southeast Mississippi, but the storms for now are under severe limits. Elsewhere, the sun is peeking out in some places, pushing temperatures well into the 60s. Tuscaloosa had reached 70 degrees at 1:00.
TONIGHT: Rain and thunderstorms will become widespread across Alabama late tonight and early tomorrow. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for areas west of a line from Muscle Shoals to Birmingham to Montgomery to Geneva, but instability values late tonight will be very marginal for big severe weather problems. Heavy rain will be the bigger threat, most likely, with potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain from 6:00 this evening through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. Flash flood watches are up for parts of Northeast Alabama, and much of North and Central Mississippi and West Tennessee. The 12Z NAM is printing 1.70″ for Birmingham, while the GFS suggests a total of 1.55″.
TOMORROW: Rain and storms will end tomorrow morning, and the sun should break through by midday, pushing temperatures toward 70 degrees, and allowing a good bit of surface based instability (CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg). This should set the stage for more storms tomorrow afternoon in response to a strong, negative tilt through, and those storms could become severe. The storms should be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere tomorrow afternoon, but where the storms form they could pack a punch with potential for hail and strong winds. An isolated tornado is not out of the question. All of the storms should be over by 7:00 p.m.
FRIDAY: This will be a nice day, with ample sunshine and a high in the 60s as we are in-between waves.
THE WEEKEND: Southerly winds will increase Saturday in advance of our next storm system, and a rather potent batch of rain and storms will move through Saturday night into Sunday morning. The 12Z GFS continues the idea of the best chance of storms from about 10:00 p.m. Saturday through 10:00 a.m. Sunday. We will have the dual threat of heavy rain and strong to severe storms; we will be much more specific about this system once our mid-week storm is out of the way. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely this weekend.
NEXT WEEK: The weather turns sharply colder early next week; looks like we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s Monday, and we should drop into the 20s early Tuesday morning. Then, later in the week, the 12Z GFS brings another wet weather system in here by Thursday. It will be hard going for more than 4 days in a row with no rain with this pattern.
RADAR DATA OUTAGE: Just receive this note from Steve Wilkinson with the NWS over in Jackson…
“Emergency Manager and Media partners: There is a problem this afternoon with radar Level 2 data that goes through the Southern Region Headquarters. The problem is being worked on but I do not have a time frame for when it may be working again. This may lead to some radar software being up to an hour behind. An example of this is the GR2Analyst software and perhaps others. If the radar data depends on Level 3 data, it should be current. An example of this is the radar images on the National Weather Service web page.”
STORM ALERT 2010: Our annual severe weather tour across Alabama is about to begin! Our first stop this year will be Thursday evening, January 28 in Winfield at First Baptist Church. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
We will have running updates on the weather situation tonight; the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
