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It was a dark and stormy night… I just love writing that line. But that line certainly applied to last night. As many people on Twitter noted, the lightning was awesome. I got to see some of it first hand, too, as my wife and I drove home from the Alabama Symphony Orchestra performance coming right through that small but lightning-active storm that gave me three-quarters of an inch of rain in Helena. And more storms are on tap today and Sunday but we’ll see a nice treat with a change in air mass for Monday and much drier air.
A cold front lying across the Mid-South will settle into northern Alabama today with lots of storms as we remain in a very moist air mass. In the upper atmosphere, a trough moving across the Central Plains today should sweep the front through the Southeast on Sunday as the trough marches to the East Coast. So whatever plans you have for today, especially this afternoon and tonight, be aware that it is going to be stormy.
Rainfall amounts will vary quite a bit due to the convective nature of the storms. I think most folks will get one half to one inch of rain, however, with the deep moisture in place – the BMX sounding had about 1.5 inches of precipitable water on the run last night – it’s highly likely that some spots could get 2 to 3 inches in stronger storms.
Improvement comes in the weather Sunday as the front moves on to the southeast allowing drier air to filter into the area Sunday night. By Monday morning, I expect to see dew points well down into the 40s which will mean a great opportunity to throw open the windows and cool off the house in a natural way.
That dry air stays with us through mid-week before moisture begins to return from the south and southeast. The GFS is painting the development of a weak low in the Southeast Gulf Thursday and Friday and moving it northward into Alabama on Saturday and Sunday. This represents a fairly significant departure from the solution yesterday, so I’m a tad bit leery of this solution. But it’s all I have for the moment, so it would mean another wet weekend.
Further into voodoo country the GFS suggests another air mass change possible at the end of May. That sure sounds nice, but it is way out in voodoo so we’ll see.
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Off to Do Dah Day in Caldwell Park in Birmingham for the 30th year of this special event benefitting local animal shelters. I’ve been a judge at the event for about 8 years now and I always look forward to judging the parade. If you get out to Do Dah Day, be sure to say hello! In the meantime, be sure to keep up with the weather no matter what you have planned for today and Sunday. Godspeed.
-Brian-
