The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
Looks like the next 36 hours or so will be a bit stormy across North and Central Alabama before there is enough of a southward push to take the deeper moisture and the storms down to the Gulf Coast region.
Storms were already occurring this morning from Northwest Georgia across North Alabama and North Mississippi and into Central Arkansas and westwards still along the Red River Valley. The NWS office in Huntsville has issued a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings earlier this morning. Surface reports showed warm temperatures this morning with most spots in the 70s while surface dew points were in the upper 60s and lower 70s. As the frontal boundary sags southward over the next 36 hours, most areas should see some rain. Rainfall amounts will vary widely but I think most locations should see one half to one inch while the stronger storms could produce higher rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in isolated spots – enough rain that flash flooding could be a problem. Since we have not had much rain for the last two weeks or so, I think the flash flood issue will remain localized.
The Storm Prediction Center has also outlooked nearly all of Alabama for a slight risk of severe weather for Day 1. The main threat should be damaging wind, and that threat is likely to become higher this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe hail might also occur but the temperature profile from the sounding last evening is fairly warm, so hail is not likely to be a big concern.
The upper trough should be strong enough to push deeper moisture to the south along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday significantly reducing our threat for storms and rain by late in the day. But confidence is not particularly high, so the forecast will probably retain the possibility of isolated storms for mid and late week. For the most part, many locations north of Montgomery will probably be dry.
The development of a strong ridge to our west will keep the heat cranked up over Texas and Oklahoma, but it noses into the Mid-South enough to bring us back into the lower 90s at least. And there are signs that the heat ridge will migrate west as we get into next weekend. However, that migration will result in a weak troughiness over the eastern US which once again places Alabama under northwesterly flow. And even well into voodoo country, the GFS shows some large thunderstorm clusters in that flow. While I do not put a great deal of faith in the exact locations, the GFS seems to be nailing the trend fairly well, so it will be something to watch.
Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with the adventures and mis-adventures in my life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
I had a great time at the Fourth of July Celebration at the Helena Amphitheater yesterday. Lots of music, good food, and a really grand fireworks display at 9 pm. Good to see a nice crowd partaking of the free festivities. James Spann should be back with the next Xtreme bright and early Monday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate information on past hailstorms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. We work primarily for people involved in insurance cases and for attorneys. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.
